It makes for an interesting read and analysis, this current, situation located so faraway. One can draw parallels with Myanmar, Thailand and Malaysia even, if the just-concluded election in Iran is scoped with the lens of an outsider.
Mousavi is “seemingly” a favourite of the urban youth with his calls for moderation and a reform of the economy. Ahmadinejad, on the other hand, is popular as ever with the conservatives and the rural folks. If clashes are an indicator of popularity, then it is clear that Mousavi is the winner but one can hardly use such an unreliable marker. Abhisit vs Thaksin, anyone?
At first glance, one might think that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is backing Ahmadinejad but the working relationship between Mousavi and the former goes way back to the 80s before Mousavi dropped off the public political radar in the 90s. Is Mousavi a double-bluff trumpcard of Khamenei then? By appearing to back Ahmadinejad, is he indirectly causing Ahmad’s downfall in one clean swoop to rid the thorn in Khamenei’s grand scheme for an Islamic republic? Khamenei and Ahmadinejad shared a very comfortable relationship in during the latter’s elections in 2005 and subsequent office as the former constantly silences critics of Ahmadinejad.
However, Ahmad seemed to have fallen out of favour with the Supreme Leader after the economy of the country took a downturn following the falling crude oil prices. Ahmad’s economic policies hinged heavily on the oil and he did not seem to have made any fallback plan should the price of oil take a drop. His populist stand which made him rose to power in 2005 has put him in great stead since by openly defying the West and his push for nuclear power. This singular trait has arguably garnered him substantial votes in the 2009 election. With such a Crusades setting, many supported the way he stood against other Western powers.
The silence by the Supreme Leader during a campaign rally by Ahmad before the 2009 elections wherein he labeled Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, a former President, of corruption, have drawn critics on both sides of the fence. Pro-Ahmad camp may take it as an endorsement of Ahmad’s premiership. On the other side of the coin, this silence is treated as a rebuff for Ahmad unlike the times of the 2005 election. Rafsanjani has already issued a warning to Khamenei to censure Ahmad for his allegations. There has also been allegations that Rafsanjani is eyeing the seat of Khamenei but again, these are mere allegations. Khamenei has also publicly rebuked Ahmad for removing the top official of a body that organizes the annual pilgrimage to Mecca in May 09. If one were to hazard a guess, Khamenei is taking the politically safe option of keeping quiet.
Another view is that Mousavi is a puppet for the Western hegemony which seeks to infiltrate the high office of Iran’s administration. Similar themes weave their way in many conspiracy theories but like most, they lack concrete evidence. However, perhaps one should not dismiss so quickly any allegations. Aristotle once said that ‘It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it’. In his manifesto, Mousavi seems to have shifted towards a more inclusive approach which have included to working together with the US under the Obama administration. Ahmad would never have so wantonly court the West openly. In his earlier years, Mousavi was quite the hardliner and radical. He even went as far as to support the taking of American hostages for his revolutionary campaign back in 1981. He has also been reported to support terrorist activities in Lebanon and openly opposed any attempt to accept Western help to rebuild the state when he was the Prime Minister. Is this an awakening about-turn or is it a chameleonic attempt to move into office? Think Datuk Seri Anwar.
Wherever his loyalty or preference lie, Khamenei as head of the Council of Guardians, the powerful group of clerics that is supposed to watch over the polls, needs to take decisive action, and soon before any decision made by him loses credibility. With Ahmad busy abroad, Khamenei seems overwhelmed in trying to diffuse the political situation following the polls. Perhaps he can consider using the questionable Revolutionary Guards cum Moral Police to help…
Don't we all just love politics?
